Published three scenarios of development of Ukraine’s economy in 2018-2020. The government approved the forecast of economic and social development on Wednesday, July 25, publishes UNN.
In particular, the first scenario assumes that during 2018-2020 will create conditions for transition to sustainable economic growth, which will be based on the extension, above all, investment demand, strengthening the competitiveness of the Ukrainian economy, increase of efficiency of use of production resources and the scientific and technological potential.
In General, under this scenario, average for the period 2018 to 2020 projected annual GDP growth at 3.5% (in 2018 – 3%).
The second scenario is when the majority of the same scenario conditions compared to the first provides a more optimistic dynamics of social indicators, in particular, the growth of social standards, low unemployment and the best business response to the introduction of the reform.
In this scenario, the projected GDP growth averaging 4.3% per annum (in 2018 – 4%).
The third scenario is the least optimistic. It is fundamentally different from the first external conditions, that is quite a significant factor, given the high dependence of Ukrainian economy from the effects of the external environment.
This scenario assumes the worst external economic conditions than the first and the second scenarios, slower growth in major trading partners of Ukraine, which will restrain the expansion of demand for domestic goods and negatively impact on the inflow of financial resources into the country, including implementation of the reforms. In particular, caution investors regarding investment in the Ukrainian economy will be able to determine small amounts of funds that will be raised by privatization of state property.
In addition, there will be a reduction of production in the export-oriented industrial activities will have a negative impact on the overall growth rate of industrial production.
In General, in this scenario, projected GDP growth at an average 1.3 percent annually (in 2018 and 1.2%).
As the main the government will consider the first scenario and on the basis of its parameters will be the calculation of budget indicators.