I zaprosu to Central mcrophone Igorya Mazepa, Investitsionnogo bankra, lyudin, Yak’s got a nose for money and on the trends. Pan Gory, mi you cekam here. Good OCR. Dyakuyu scho VI prishli. About you saying scho VI robite Groshi s air. I if p. Oleksandr Chernyak, bladesman, spicav you, “And pam Yates ti chasi if CCB dolar 5 I for 8 UAH?”. VI said, “hi I’m talking about Shaw not skoby.” And he said, scho Tobi dobre ti prazuch head, and I mush to produce a product. Skazhit be caress, to themselves Parajuli VI vzhe investicinis climate, the dollar exchange rate for Yakima will pracovat? Chi Varto write in those scho zakladatel budget I in those scho promovat experti international monetary Fund, for example, I HIH companies? Well, I in CNC KNCV, podliza be caress svoimi sposterezhennya for Tsim everyone knows, what does iz ukraïntsyami.
Igor Mazepa: If we’re talking on the dollar, I can unfortunately say, that the issue became political. It speculates on both the government and the opposition, and anyone. What often really. Businesses have to live in the real world. Every Ukrainian citizen has to be also your expectation, to pay utility bills. Hope for the dollar. And, too, they all go down. We are in Concord recently did a study.
Concord – TSE your compania?
Igor Mazepa: Yes, Concorde Capital is my company. These studies concern in particular the dollar. For the last 22 years with 96-go year when in the country we have in fact appeared in the local currency. The hryvnia depreciated against the dollar by an average of 12 % per year.
– VI s yakogo rock rajawali?
Igor Mazepa: 96. Since the introduction of the hryvnia…
– Skilki CCB dollar then?
Igor Mazepa: I think RS 1.80. Now there is 28 UAH. So, it devalued by 12% on average per year. And so many businessmen, analysts and experts refer to this average level of devaluation and predict in their projections, in its calculations, the financial plans they make for next year, it is somewhere between 10 and 15 %. Analysts of “Concorde” came out of the box. We tried to understand the nature of this devaluation. And it is fairly simple. In a nutshell, try as much as possible simple words to say. The course of action is usually on how much is the difference in inflation. I.e. in the growth of prices in Ukraine, if we take the national currency, and in America, if we take the hryvnia against the dollar. Now, in America, inflation averages about 2 %. In Ukraine the inflation rate in 2018 will be about 10 %. I am convinced that will not go over that limit. Most likely next year and 2020 it will be around 5-8 %. If you stick to the basic theory, which is shared by many economists worldwide, the average devaluation or falling of hryvnia to the dollar will amount to about 6-7% a year.
By the way, the word says. For example, the pound this year fell against the dollar by 15 %. We often see significant fluctuations in the yen to the dollar, the Euro against the dollar. The change in the rate of any currency to the other currency of the world leaders if it is 10-15 % per year, this is a normal reaction of the market, which happens in countries in macroeconomics, and analyzes behaviors of the Central Banks. Therefore, we believe in the “Concord” is not standard. Nasim Taleb, a famous writer of many best-selling books, once said that the historical experience is not a reliable basis upon which to make a truthful and fair predictions for the future. So we are moving away from the standard perception of a devaluation of 12 %. And I think that the devaluation in the next 2 years, despite the presidential elections, the political process, the avalanche of populism and all the rest will be at 5 8 %.
This means I TSE, scho dolar kostuvate…
And that means the dollar will be worth by the end of next year will be at the level of 30-31 UAH.
I’m talking about popular. Pam atate if CCB stribok pid forty UAH per dollar? Duzhe bagato experts I poltics vihodili people I seemed to scho real-dollar exchange rate of UAH 13. “13” he so I not powernova. Ale Tim not less poltics quiet loving people. Skazhit be caress, real-dollar exchange rate at a time sbhatia iz course, that zakladani in budget?
Look, the real exchange rate is the one which you will be able to buy a dollar. You can go to the shop now, and buy the dollar to 28 UAH. So I think this is real.
VI resume about tobto scho stink said. Tobto in us] I etc dozvola MOBI dolar Kostova 13 UAH, so wajale ABO said ti policy people.
See many populists come from where the wind is blowing – and that’s said to be so popular in the ears of many people rate. If again you take the real macroeconomic indicators the exchange rate is simply the ratio of exports and imports. If exports exceed imports, the supply of dollars in the market increases and the exchange rate falls. What we have seen, for example, at the beginning of the 18th year, when he fell 28 to 26 UAH. lasted literally the whole year.