Ukraine now should not be to declare a default, as this will lead to the total impoverishment of the population. This was stated by the head of Concorde Capital Igor Mazepa
Natalia Vlasenko: If we consider that we have a huge debt, terrible agreement signed G. Jaresko on debt restructuring that our economy is stagnant, if you consider that our dependence goes all sorts of external frame. Can we really declare a default? And what’s the worst that happens if we will declare and excuse all that I need?
Igor Mazepa: All the time. It was my recommendation in 2014. It seems to me that the train slightly left. What is the default now? There is a second side to this coin. In Argentina, this situation has occurred in Bolivia, Venezuela. This further led to the impoverishment of people turned away for any lender or investor from the country for many years. Going back to what the money somehow swirling in Ukraine, they are categorically not sufficient to increase production, to invest the capital. Default now will lead to the fact that the whole country will be in poverty. Even now, the average Ukrainian citizen, unfortunately, lives a difficult life. Recent trends, however, that real wages are rising by 20%. It’s just an imitation. The country is growing at 3%, but it is still growth. People buy still more goods. Included a multiplier: the less the poor citizen, the more banks want to offer their loans to buy TVs, to provide an opportunity to subsidize the money for the surgery, the ability to go to rest. Through this multiplier reborn retail consumption in our country.
N. Q. You are an investment banker. Consequently, from your predictions, or errors, or correct predictions depends very much in the country. You were wrong repeatedly. 2008 GDP will rise by 4%, and it fell because there was a crisis; hryvnia falls to 11-12 and it went down to 26 (was even 37!) Can You venture to give any predictions what will happen with it all, how much can we take these tranches, nothing in principle making? Specific sectors of the economy may be growing, but in General any rise is not observed. Investors do not come how long can we continue to take these loans?
I. M.. “Needle” is not that the IMF keeps us on the hook because he wants to introduce some of their culture or to sell some of his goods, helicopters or something. These reforms are necessary to every Ukrainian. The IMF needs reform to this part of the world was stable. The IMF requires the pension, land reform, anti-corruption and a number of others. It is the mission of the IMF.
N. Q. Why Mvfu our anti-corruption court?
I. M. Several versions. The opportunity to live better. The only argument now Western creditors and the IMF is the dollar. Do this, for example, land reform, which will give you the opportunity to live better, I’ll give you a dollar. The IMF will not buy IMF opens up the land market for me, for you, for millions of Ukrainians, including for foreign investors. He can’t carry a hundred of topsoil with them. It is really precious earth. But its value is simply that in a free market piece of land is much more expensive than when you simply do not have the right to sell. Why don’t I have the right to sell their piece of land? How to sell an apartment, a car?
N. V. a Piece of land people are trading, for example, buy to build.
I. M. we are Talking about agricultural land.
N. V. What is the land from Mr Kosyuk?
I. M. All rented land, and Kosyuk and Verevskiy, and still large enough billionaires.
N. V. Successfully become billionaires on leased land…
I. M. thank God! These would be the billionaires and millionaires would have been much more if it was open land market, and every Ukrainian could freely dispose of their land.
And instead of dying in poverty, had the opportunity to sell their land and live with dignity if he wants to and has the opportunity.
N. V. Distributed to people the earth. And what happened? Simulation of this process has occurred. None of these people became rich. They gave the same two pennies to rent their land to such Koukam, Bakhmatyuk, isn’t it?
I. M. I repeat your words: the simulation of this process. Because there is no real reform. They are forbidden to sell.